Analysis: As you get to know me you will learn I have never been a big fan of Marvin Lewis. I believe the Cincy D is a bunch of some low class individuals, I believe Dalton is overrated and you heard it here-Cincy will Not make the playoffs this year and Marvin Lewis will be fired. As far this weeks match-up Cincy comes in without Mohammed Sanu and Marvin Jones their 2nd + 3rd wide receivers from LY. TE Eifert is out with an anke injury. So Dalton is left to throw to AJ Green who will be covered by a rejuvinated Darrell Revis plus there is a new offensive co-ordinator. The Cincy offense is completely different right now & will need some time to adapt. I know the Jets front will stop the Bengals overrated running backs. I also see the Jets doing good with Matt Forte as running back and all their WR. Cincy has a bad history playing in NY, 0-4 ATS last 4 times as well as NY is always a good HD. Finally Cincy plays at Pittsburgh next week and I know they spent some time looking ahead at that blood bath rivalry match-up. I believe the Jets win outright.
Wager: $1000 to win $1050
Result: The Jets missed an extra Point and a chip shot FG early on and lost by 1 Point. This was a miserable way to lose but I have already moved on as I have lost before on week 1 ML plays. Jets lost 23-22
Bank Roll: $4,000
Game Day God Record: 0-1
Baltimore(1-0) @ Cleveland(0-1)
Money Line: 260
Joe Flacco is 13-2 Straight up Vs. Cleveland. Coach John Harbaugh is 7-1 ATS away in Cleveland which tells me he doesn't take this division rival lightly. The Ravens seem like a well focused team this year now that they are healthy again. They were 1 of 2 teams to go 4-0 in the pre-season and won the opener while getting the rust out. Interesting that the other undeafeated pre-season team was the Eagles who just happen to beat the Browns in week 1. Even though Cleveland and Josh Mccown have played them tough last year that also serves the Ravens well as they will Not take this team lightly. Flacco will have time to throw and should shred apart the Cleveland secondary with Steve Smith, Mike Wallace and WR Perriman. Ravens will roll to a 2-0 start
Wager: $2600 to win $1000
Result: Cleveland came out and went up 20-0 then missed and extra point which Balt. Ran back for 2. Clevland never scored again. It was ugly early on and I told my friend do not watch and pick up with 5 minutes left in the 3rd qtr. Balt came all the way back & won 25-20.
Bank Roll: $5,000
Game Day God Record: 1-1
Pittsburgh(2-0) @ Philadelphia(2-0)
Money Line: 180
These in state Rivals do not play each other often, only once in the past 5 years which Pittsburgh and Big Ben won. I believe its a short trip where one-third of the fans will be Steelers as their fan base travels well. The Steelers seem well focused this year with improved play on the Defensive side of the ball led by the now healthy Ryan Shazier. Keith Butler their D coordinator now has 2 weeks of game film to study Carson Wentz and should be able to put a effective game plan in place. Lets give the rookie his credit with a 2-0 record, hitting 60% and 3 TD`s with no picks. However he did it against teams that are 0-4 and heavily favored to be 0-6 by days end. Now he goes up against the 2-0 Steelers with Shazier & co. along with Big Ben and his offense should be more of a challenge for the also improved Philly D. Bottom line here is Eagles are 1-6 after a MNF game and 0-10 off back to back straight up and ATS wins when playing a non division foe. Now this is a different eagles team with new coach and QB and they have exceeded almost every ones expectations so far. This is the game where I believe they come back to earth. There is no doubt I believe Pittsburgh is the better team, with better coach, QB, RB, WR, etc. Even if this a close game Big Ben will find a way to will his team to a victory. Steelers will roll to 3-0 and keep pace with AFC rival NE.
Wager: $1800 to win $1000
Result: Wow. This has to be my worst loss since moving to ML formula. Pittsburgh was outplayed on every phase of the game and Rookie QB phenom Wentz looks outstanding. Eagles destroy their in state rivals 34-3.
Bank Roll: $3,200
GameDay God Record: 1-2
Denver(3-0) @ Tampa Bay(1-2)
Money Line: 160
In there last 8 games the Broncos are 8-0 and the Bucs are 2-6. This games seems like a mismatch yet the line seems like a bargain. The Superbowl champs are rolling and I don't see the train being derailed here. The 4PM start should serve them well. Denver is 7-0 off a SU dog win like last week and 9-2 in their 2nd of Back to back road games. Tampa Bay on the other hand is 0-4 in their second of back to back non division games and 1-6 at home before Carolina. Bottom line is I don't see why the Bucs hired Dirk Koetter to be their coach and the Bucs early season woes will continue where as Gary Kubiak is starting to look more and more like a genius. The former QB is doing a great job with their young QB and it helps to have Von Miller and company on the other side. Denver rolls on.... $3000 to win $2000 on Denver & NE on a money line reverse
Wager: $3000 To Win $2000
Outcome: Denver did their part by dominating the game after the score was ties early at 7-7. Denver won 27-7
GameDay God Record: 2-2
Week 4 Pick 2
Buffalo(1-2) @ New England(3-0)
Money Line: 300
Forget about the QB situation, Both practiced and look fine on Friday this is just Bill Belichick being Bill. Bill Belichick vs. Rex Ryan = Bill is 9-1SU. New England is also 6-1 ATS after playing on Thursday night. The Bills are 2-8 ATS in their first of back to back road games and 0-6 ATS away when coming off a straight up dog win like last week. Again, forget about the NE QB Situation, NE will dominate the battle in the trenches. Tyrod Taylor had 120 passing yards and that wont get it done up in New England and its confirmed that Sammy Watkins will be out which will hurt them in this match up. BB will have his team ready to dominate in another division game where he is 22-1 in his last 23 division games at home.
Wager: $3000 to win $2000
I made a huge Mistake this week in rushing the selections to play the London game and my reports failed me as all my information before Sunday had Jimmy Garapolo starting. Then I had to leave at 11am for a christening and soon found out the line was dropping because Jacoby Brisset was starting and Garapolo was out. I sincerely apologize to everyone. New England never had a chance with Brisset starting and lost 16-0.
GameDay God Record: 2-3
Bank roll: $200
New England (3-1) @ Cleveland (0-4)
Money Line: 500
I know everyone is picking New England and so am I. I have been off to a rough start on my Money line selections this year and want to take advantage of the seemingly FREE square this week in NE. As you can see below I have retooled my bankroll and want to get on a run starting with this game. You know all the facts here Brady is back, Bellichick off a shut out loss at home, etc. The browns 0-4 actually have played well in spots. They only lost 2 of the 4 games by double digits and are competing with all the injuries they have had. Brownies are 28th in the NFL in points allowed and I See that getting worse in this spot. Patriots were 7-0 SU after a loss in 2013 & 2014. Even if Brady is rusty I still see New England winning handily.
Wager: $5000 to win $1000
Brady wasn`t rusty at all and laying the 10.5 would have been an easy cover. Id say the Bill and Brady show is back. Patriots tolled to a 33-13 victory.
GamedayGod Record: 3-3
Bank roll: $$6,200
Kansas City(2-2) @ Oakland Raiders (3-1)
Money Line: 140
Don`t like the line moving to KC a road favorite, I would like to see it become a pick em again. You probably know it but Andy Reid is 15-2 straight up after the Bye week. Kansas City was also embarrassed when last seen in Pittsburgh. Couple that with a healthy Jamal Charles(all my reports state he is a full go) and I am all over the Chiefs here. When I look at the match up here I know the chiefs will fine tune their offense and go on some long drives against this Raiders Defense if you want to call it a defense. They are at the bottom 5 of several defense categories and have been out gained in all 5 games! The Raiders were 2-6 ATS at home last year and 0-2 ATS so far this year. There really is no home field advantage for this team who actually play better on the road(9-2 ATS on the road last 11). Furthermore, KC has won in Oakland 2 of the last 3 years, have won 5 of the last 6 meetings and quarterback Alex Smith is 7-1 Straight up against the Raiders. Lets face it we would all agree the Raiders have been lucky so far this year with Del Rio gambling, they won 2 games by 1 point and a 3rd by 3 points. Their other 2 games were decided by 7 points and came down to last possession. The season starts now for KC and they make everything closer in the AFC west with comfortable win. Id say they get it. Lay the smaller number here.
Wager: $1400 to win $1000
KC went down 7-0 then completely dominated the game 26-3 and it could have been worse(KC missed a FG and extra point). Andy Reid knows how to get a team ready after the BYE!
Gameday God Record: 4-3
Oakland Raiders (4-2) @ Jaguars (2-3)
Money Line: 110
Analysis: The Raiders are right were they want to be. On the road again where they are 3-0 this year and 9-2 ATS in their last 11 road games. Jacksonville is 0-2 on its home field this year with a home win in England therefore there is really no home field advantage for them. Remember Jack Del Rio? He was fired by Jacksonville in 2011. I am positive he will have his troops fired up for this game. I just checked the standings and the Raiders are in 1st place a spot the Jaguars havent seen since Del Rio was their coach. The Raiders are also 5-1 Straight up & ATS right after a home loss the last 6 times they suffered a loss at home and couple that with they are 7-0 ATS the last 7 years in their 4th road game of the year. They should be getting running back Murray back which will help and as bad as the defensive has been(they are very young at LB and in the secondary, they are learning) they should be able to contain the Jacksonville O. Jacksonville with all their talent on both sides of the ball just seem like they lack chemistry, hunger, and seem snake bit. Not crazy about their coach and even in their last 2 wins it seems they are doing everything they can to loose. They are 1-8 ATS off a NFC game(0-1 this year). Lets roll with the Raiders here.
Wager: $1000 to win $1100
Result: Raiders kind of dominated from start to finish. Having running back Murray(2 TD`s) certainly helped and Jaguars continue to be mess. Raiders are true road warriors at 4-0 now on the season with a 33-16 win.
GameDay God Record: 5-3
New England (6-1) @ Buffalo (4-3)
Money Line: 250
Analysis: The Patriots were shut out 16-0 last month at home when Jacoby Brisset was the starter. That`s about as much incentive this coach, QB, & team needs. Its all I need to know to pick them. I believe Bill Belichick & co. will return the favor here. It will be easier too now that I just got confirmation that McCoy is out but none the less Brady creates much more problems for the Bill Defense who showed some weakness in the run game last week against Miami. Bill will continue to expose that with running back Blount. New England has won the last 4 years at Buffalo and 12 of the last 13 at Buffalo. Brady has 25 wins against Buffalo more than any other team. Tom is 3-0 since his return all wins by double digits. New England has also won 6 of the last 7 years before the bye week and they are off next week. Buffalo needs Shady to play to have any chance and even if does the Bills are 0-7 off a Straight up off a favorite loss vs. an opponent off a double digit win. The bottom line is Patriots will avenge their home shutout loss & the Bill`s 4 game win streak is now ancient history. Lets roll with Patriots here.
Wager: $2500 to win $1000
Result: Patriots completely dominated 41-25 and coach has never been swept by a division opponent. Brady now 4-0 all by double digits since his return.
Bank Roll: $9,300
Game Day God Record: 6-3
New York Jets (3-5) @ Miami Dolphins (3-4)
Money Line: 200
Analysis: I have been a big supporter of HC Adam Gase after all he did resurrect the career of Jay Cutler which was know as mission impossible. I am throwing out the heads up trends which all belong to the Jets just like Thursday night when all the heads up trends belong to the Buccaneers. I believe many division trends will be broke this week including the Jets 4 game winning streak in Miami. Last year teams that won before the bye week were 12-3 ATS following the bye week. Both teams are on 2 game winning streaks. Miami beat two teams soundly on this field with winning records and the jets beat two teams on a combined straight up 0-12 record. Miami has stopped the 2 game winning streak of the Steelers and the 4 game winning streak of the Bills in its last 2 games. This week they will again stop the 2 game winning streak of the Jets. Don't forget in 2 of Miami`s 4 losses were single digits to NE and Seattle on the road. This team is heading in the right direction after a rough 1-4 start whereas the Jets truly need to evaluate their young QB.`s. False hope of making the playoffs is preventing that right now. Their offensive line is decimated for this game and the week off will benefit Jay Ajayi and Miami immensely. I strongly feel Miami will beat its division rival and get to .500 at 4-4 second place in their division. Lets roll with the Dolphins here.
Wager: $2000 to win $1000
Result: This turned out to be a back n forth game and Miami got a 96 Yards Kickoff return TDand held on for the 27-23 win.
GameDay God Record: 7-3
Miami @ San Diego
Money Line: 210
San Diego - 210 Chargers right until the bye week! SD gets another favorable match up this week and I believe will get to .500 with a win and head into the bye at 5-5. This is a great match up with 2 of the league`s hottest running backs. I believe SD will contain Jay Ajayi just enough and force QB Ryan Tannehill to beat them. Give me Rivers over Tannehill any day especially at home. SD is 3-1 at home and Miami is 0-3 on the road and 0-3 in their last 3 trips to SD including a loss last year. Miami has been hitting on all cylinders at home during their 3 game winning streak which will come to an abrupt halt soon. Just like Detroit who won 3 in a row at home went on the road and lost their next game. Furthermore San Diego is 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games and Miami is 0-6 ATS in their last 6 4:00PM eastern starts. Finally 4-4 teams that go on the road in game 9 of the season off back to back wins are just 3-16 SU in that next game.Lets go with SD to take car of business. Go Chargers Go!
Wager: $2100 to win $1000
Result: San Diego led 10-0 early but left some points off the board before the half and than had every chance to win the game in the 4th especially after Miami muffed a punt on the 5 yard line. Rivers lost it and threw 4, yes 4 interceptions in the 4 quarter. Credit Miami for hanging in there and never quitting on Defense after Jay Ajayi was held in check with less than 100 yards. SD lost 31-24.
GameDay God Record: 7-4
Tennessee @ Colts
Money Line: 150
Analysis: All trends point to the Colts who are 10-0 straight up the last 10 in this series. The Colts are 7-1 ATS with rest off a straight up win. The Titans are a miserable 1-10 after a NFC game, 1-6 ATS in their first of back to back away games, and 2-11 ATS off a home game vs. an opponent off an away game. Chuck Pagano deemed this a playoff game and I'm confident his troops will be up to the task and I also dont think the Titans are making the playoffs this year. They are an up and coming team and to go 3-13 last year to 8-8 this year will be a very credible improvement and season. The Colts defense ranks 30th in the league however they sometimes force timely turnovers and the bye bye will allow them to tweak some things and get healthier but regardless their offense will be 100% healthy for the first time all year and should give the Titans D all they can handle. I do agree that the Titans who have scored 35 points 3 games in a row do look like a scary team right now, However Luck and and the Colts just have the Titans number. In the first match up the Colts were missing several offensive players and still put up over 30 on them. Furthermore Marcus Mariotta has won 8 games in his career. He is 1-6 after those wins with the 1 win coming against 0-10 Cleveland. The Colts will tighten things up in their division. My gut is strongly telling me the Colts can beat the Titans this week they way the Titans beat Green Bay last week. I am doubling down on the Colts this week. Take the Colts here.
Wager: $3000 to win $2000
Result: Colts went up 21-0 in first half but then only scored 3 points in the second half, but the much maligned Defense stepped up and played huge holding the high flying Titans to only 17 points. Colts win 24-17
GameDay God Record: 8-4
Tennessee @ Chicago
Money Line: 230
Analysis: The Titans are 5-6 and have a bye next week. They have a great opportunity to get back to .500 and take a shot a division in December. Coming off of division loss will keep them focused for this road trip. They couldn't catch the Chicago Bears at a better time for them. The Bears are just decimated form injuries and suspensions at many key positions including starting QB, TE, WR, LB, and starting OL..The up and coming Titans need to take advantage of this and should roll to a convincing victory. The Bears are 0-6 ATS in their first of back to back home games vs. a non division opponent and are just 1-11 ATS at home when playing an opponent of a straight up loss. The Titans have a good history in Chicago with a 4-0 ATS record the last 4 trips to Chicago. Yep Matt Barkley has a career passing rating of 34.2 so expect many hand offs to rookie RB Juwan Howard , that wont be enough to keep up with the high flying Titans. Finally, The Titans have won their last 3 times after a loss, make that 4 here. Titans will roll.....
Wager: $2,300 to win $1,000
Result: I thought we had a laugher in the Titans. They are up 27-7 in the 4th quarter and should have lost the game. Come on, Really? If it wasn't for about 10 dropped passes and a dropped TD they would have. The up and coming Titans need to learn from this and must get help on the defensive side of the ball for next year. Anyway, Glad they held on here for the 27-21 Win.
GameDay God record: 9-4
Detroit @ New Orleans
Money Line: 290
Analysis: The aints are 7-0 ATS at home off a home game and 7-1 ATS in their last 8 overall games. Today they have a chance at home to get back to .500. They are going to make most of that opportunity against the cardiac Detroit Lions. The lions are 3-17 straight up away following a Thanksgiving day game and 1-7 ATS away following back to back home games and are 0-6 ATS after they face the vikings. 4 of the Saints losses have been by 4 points or less earlier on in the season. The Saints Defense has been playing much better in the second half of the season and the offense is flat out scary. They have a chance to put up a 100 points over 2 games and I think they can do it. The Saints are also 9-2 ATS at home before back to back away games and 9-1 ATS vs. the NFC. The final kicker here is the Lions will still have at least a 1 game lead and maybe 2 game lead in their division if they loose and the Saints desperately need a win to get to .500 and keep playoff hopes alive. The Saints also have played a much tougher schedule than Detroit. The record of teams played for the Saints is 63-57 vs Detroit opponents are 52-66. Furthermore the last 4 games Detroit has faced QB Sam Bradford and the non existent Minny offense twice, Black Bortles, & Brock Osweiler. Today they get Drew Brees in New Orleans. Good Luck! Give me the more desperate team at home who has played a tougher schedule and is getting better in the second half. The Saints march on.......
Wager: $2900 to win $1000
Result: The Saints came out flat and trailed throughout with Brees throwing 3 Picks against Detroit Defense at home. Didn’t see this one coming in a disappointing effort. Detroit won 28-13
GameDay God Record: 9-5
Minnesota @ Jacksonville
Money Line: 170
he ikings are 14-3 ATS in December and have had 10 days to prepare for this match up. hey are also 7-0 off of back to back losses vs. a non division opponent. Mike Zimmer is gutting out his eye surgery recovery to coach this team through December. Remember if they win out they can still make the playoffs and it starts here in Jacksonville where the hapless Jag`s are win less at home. Furthermore they continue to make mistakes, take penalties, and throw TD`s to the other team. The Jaguars are 0-3 against Minnesota and 0-8 ATS as a non conference dog, 1-7 ATS in their 2nd of back to back home games. The Jaguars defense has come to the table in the past few months but their offense against the Minnesota defense is another mismatch. The Vikings also have a big edge on special teams. Look for Minnesota to dominate early and often. I am doubling up on this play as well.
Wager: $3400 to win $2000
Minnesota struggles early to score touchdowns and found themselves down 16-13 but then buckled down and scored the last 2 TD`s and won easily 25-16.
GameDay God Record: 10-5
Oakland @ San Diego
Money Line: 160
The aiders have had 10 days to prepare for this game while San Diego is coming off a road loss where top RB Gordon was hurt and top defensive end Joey Bosa is in concussion protocol. Not a good situation going up against Derek Carr and company without your top players. The Raiders are 6-1 ATS in their second of back to back away games vs. division opponents while San Diego is 1-6 ATS the last 7 games vs. the Raiders at home and 0-8 ATS at home off an away game vs. an opponent off an away game. Furthermore the Raiders for the most part a healthy team right now who are fighting for a division title and a first round bye while the Chargers have absolutely nothing to play for and have been decimated by injuries this whole year. It showed in the last few weeks and will show here. The Chargers have also been terrible in their division with a 1 -11 straight up record the last 12 games & the Raiders will have many Raider Nation fans in San Diego for this one and they wont let them down, Raiders roll. I am doubling up on this play as well.
Wager: $3200 to win $2000
The Raiders made it closer than the final score was with a 19-16 win as they turned it over 2 X inside the opponents 10 yard line and settled for 4 field goals including a first and goal opportunity at the 1. You just had the felling they were never going to lose this game.
GameDay God Record: 11-5
Minnesota @ Green Bay
Money Line: 300
Analysis: Lets face it this team has a ton of momentum where the Viking just couldn't ever recover since their fantastic start. Minnesota won the division on this field last year in week 17 and beat GB in week 2 this year. Prior to that GB was 7-0-1 Straight up against them. GB will be very focused playing with double revenge at Lambeau on Christmas Eve! Minnesota was playing well at the time of their latest 2 wins against GB and Gb wasn't. Now the tide has turned and we all know Aaron Rodgers is incredible at home in December (16-2). The Packers are 8-0 ATS as favorites off away game versus opponent off a home game and are 5-1 ATS in second of back to back division games. The Packers defense has played very well in this 4 game winning streak letting up on 16 points per game and that should continue here against a Minnesota team who cant run the ball and its offensive line continues to struggle. The Vikings defense should rebound and play better than last week but it wont be enough to stop Rodgers and company at home. GB streaks on to Detroit for a division title match up next week.
Wager: $3000 to win $1000
Result: Green Bay led and dominated from start to finish winning easily 38-25
GameDay God Record: 12-5
New England @ Miami
Money Line: 330
Analysis: This is a big number to lay on the road however Tom Brady is 11-1 this year and didn't play in week 2 when these two teams met. The Patriots have lost their last 3 times in Miami(I know hard to believe in Miami) including week 17 last year which ultimately cost them a shot at another Superbowl. I don't believe they will let that happen again. Miami is basically locked into the 6 seed for next week and should rest all injured players in which their defense has plenty of them including Kiko Alonso and both starting corner backs. They are starting their back up QB, they basically played 5 quarters last week when all out to beat Buffalo. New England is very good after they allow 3 points or less at 7-1 ATS and they are 5-1 ATS after the Jets vs a division opponent off back to back wins while Miami is 1-5 ATS in their last home game off a straight up dog win. With all of this I am on New England to take care of business, lock up Home Field advantage through out against a drained Miami squad who will start to focus for next week.
Wager: $3300 to win $1000
Result: New England went up 20-0 then coasted to a convincing 35-14 win. Miami seemed drained from the OT game last week.
GameDay God Record: 13-5
Wild Card Playoffs
Miami @ Pittsburgh
Money Line: 500
Analysis: Line moving against us. These 2 teams met in week 6 where the Fish won 30-15. As mentioned above, In NFL Playoff history when 2 teams meet in the regular season the looser of the first meeting wins the Playoff meeting over 55% of the time. In that game,Jay Ajayi broke out for his first of 3, 200 yards rushing days. I believe Miami caught Pittsburgh off guard that day and took advantage of it.(Remember we were on Miami that day as home dogs).This time the Fish have to travel to Pittsburgh where Big Ben is 13-1 in his last 14 games with only loss coming to Dallas in the last seconds of the game. plus he is 4-0 straight up & ATS in the playoffs when avenging a regular season loss. I see this being another long day for Miami. Starting a back up QB, traveling east to cold weather, going against a healthy Steelers squad seems like a tall task. Miami started the year 1-4, so give them much credit for getting here. HC Adam Gase should be around coaching for many years. His team will get some experience in this game and maybe challenge the Patriots in the coming years. Lets face it, Antonio Brown and Levion Bell were injured for last year playoffs and didn't play- Big Ben played through his injuries and the team still fought all the way to Denver. This team is healthy, is home, is laser focused and will take advantage of Miami weaknesses on Defense as Miami has let up over 30 points in 3 of its last 5 games and ranks 30th out of 32 against the run.
Wager: $5000 to win $1000
Result: Pitt went up 14-0 in the first few minutes and dominated from there to a convincing 30--12 win. Never a worry here.
Bank roll: $15,300
GameDay Record: 14-5
Seattle @ Atlanta
Money Line: 210
Analysis: I stated last week that Seattle has looked like a shell of the Seattle teams we knew. Well they stepped it up last week AT HOME where they usually dominate anyway however it seemed Seattle got the right calls last week remember that game was 13-6 in the fourth quarter against a hapless Stafford and Detroit team. Now they travel to Atlanta for a rematch of a controversial 26-24 Seattle home win. There was a non pass interference call and others that went Seattle`s way that day. In that game Atlanta was coming off a road win against the SB Champs Denver and stayed out west while Seattle was coming off their bye. This time they are coming off a bye whereas Seattle is coming off a home win. Wild Card Round winners are just 16-49 SU off home win & Seattle is 0-3 off its last 3 home wins. I know Atlanta and Matty Ice are only 1-4 in their playoff careers. That was under HC Mike Smith. HC Dan Quinn has installed a new physical & mental toughness too this team and it took some time (32 games in) to develop. Remember coach Quinn was the defensive coordinator with Seattle during their Superbowl runs. He will know how to attack his old defense. I`m confident Atlanta will open up the offense and stay aggressive throughout and keep this Seattle defense on the field. On defense, Superbowl champion Dwight Freeney is preaching & tutoring to his young defense how to be better and its working. Vic Beasly should make a few plays to get Russell & Co off the field. 4.5 Points is nothing for an offense like this, right? You would think so. If Seattle is vulnerable it is on the road. I also believe Atlanta feels disrespected and is highly motivated because of that. Matty ice hasn't been in a playoff game in 4 years, but he played very well that year, beating Seattle(30-28 when Russell Wilson was a rookie) and throwing for almost 400 yards, 3TD`s, and a passer rating of 114 against Jim Harbaugh`s 49ers defense. He also seems to play his best against the NFC West, going 14-7 straight up and 4-0 ATS the last four. Atlanta will have to overcome the following to move to the NFC Championship game. Atlanta has looked great since Thanksgiving. They have over matched all their competition but the last time they played a team with a winning record- They lost at home. That was to Kansas City in week 13. The bottom line is Russell Wilson is 8-3 straight up in the playoff vs. Matty Ice who is 1-4. The last time Seattle was an underdog on the road they won. They beat the Patriots in New England as 7 point dogs- Oh ya that was off a Monday night game- short week and they had to fly all the way east. This team knows how to step up in these situations. They can run the ball here and keep Atlanta`s processions limited they have a shot. Atlanta is a terrible home favorite of 9-21 ATS but they did cover as a home favorite 2X this year. It was a close game in week 6 and a close game in the playoffs 4 years ago (Matty Ice only playoff win). I believe Atlanta will handle all of this very well, and be able match Seattle`s physicality, and win a high scoring affair 41-31.
Wager: $2100 to win $1000
Result: Seattle went up 7-0 on a 8 minute drive to start the game,then Atlanta slowly took over and actually outscored them 36- 6 in route to a 36-20 easy win. Atlanta was much more physical on both sides of the ball and it showed.
Bank roll: $16,300
GameDay Record: 15-5
Green Bay @ Atlanta
Money Line: 200
Analysis: We saw last week that GB was a public underdog and most people picked them but the sharp money came in on Dallas, and GB won. Now same thing is happening here as sharp money coming in on Falcons. Maybe because the Packers have their 3 receivers as questionable. Regardless, I'm confident Adams & Allison will play. Jordy didn't play last week when the beat might Dallas in Dallas- Rodgers has plenty of weapon. I will Not buy into it. Sunday Morning update states all 3 wide receivers will play. Give me Rodgers Plus 6 vs. anyone or anything right now. Wait until noon to see if we can even get +7. The Falcons have averaged 38 points a game during its 5 game winning streak while the Packers have averaged 32. That`s why the total is so high at 60.5 and when they played in the regular season, week 8 the Falcons won 33 -32. They had the ball last and it may come down to who has the ball last in this affair. I knew last week Atlanta was really focused for Dan Quinn to beat his old team. They were much more Physical and remember this NFL home favorites are 20-36-6 ATS after facing Pete Carroll's Seattle Seahawks, including 1-7 ATS from Game 14 out. However this week is a whole new animal. Green Bay`s offensive line is a whole lot better than Seattle's` and anyone Atlanta has faced during their win streak. I mentioned last week is how can you go against Aaron Rodgers right now and he is getting 6 points! I know Matty Ice is playing a very close 2nd to Rodgers and he has the numbers to prove it but I see this being another close game. Rodgers is so visually impressive its almost unreal. Not only is he throwing 30 yard darts, he is drawing key penalties, he is running for first downs, he is NOT fumbling when hit, he is playing at a level that I can not go against. The trends point to GB as well as they are 7-1 Against the spread on the road in the playoffs since 2011 while the Falcons are 2-9-1 ATS in the playoffs off a win and just 1-5 against the spread under Dan Quinn as home favorites vs. .444 opponents or better. As far as history goes & mentioned last week,The winner of the 7 previous Giants/Green Bay playoff games has gone on to win the NFL Championship every time they met, and of course they met a few weeks ago. Rodgers and the Packers also won in the playoffs in the Georgia Dome in 2010- The Pack won the Superbowl that year when Rodgers caught fire winning their last 6 games including 3 road playoff wins. There is no reason to believe that Rodgers and the Pack can control some clock and match Atlanta score for score. I believe the Packers defense has a better chance at making a key defensive stop than the Atlanta defense, and with Rodgers I have to believe they will be in this game. The NFC Title game has been decided by 1 score or less the last 9 years including 4 Overtime games. Lets ride the Pack to the Superbowl.
Wager: $500 to win $1000
Result: GB came out and missed a FG early then fumbled at the 10 yeard line. Instead of the score being 10-10 early they were down 17-0 and never recovered. Their were reports of many players having the Flu during the week. They certainly played like it. Atlanta dominated 44-21.
GameDay Record: 15-6
New England vs Atlanta at Houston, TX
Money Line: 150
Analysis: With 8 of the 10, 2016 playoff games decided by double digits were all hoping for a change of fortune in the big dance and I think we get it. I see this being a close game and this year the Falcons are just 1-3 straight up in games decided by 3 points or less. In the Patriots last 6 Superbowl they all have been decided by 3 points with the last one decided by 4 points. You can take all the trends on the Pats and the visually impressive Falcons stuff out the window. The Bottom line for me is Can Atlanta`s defense pressure and disrupt Tom Brady? I will say that they wont do enough and will fall short. I see this starting out slow and both teams feeling each other out. Then I see some big plays being made by both sides. In the end, The versatility of the Patriots offense, whether its Blount and lewis running or Brady throwing will limit Matty Ice possessions and give the Patriots an opportunity to slow down the Falcons just enough. As you can see from some of my previous Superbowl plays below I am a defense before offense handicapper. Even though the Patriots have the #1 scoring defense, I do question who have they really played. Matty Ice and this Falcons offense will definitely be their biggest test. I don't think their defense is a good as Denver`s was last year or previous other #1 scoring defenses in the past. However on the other side of the ball you have a quarterback going for his unprecedented 5th Superbowl ring and potentially 4th Superbowl MVP. (look at the 2000 Ravens defense, they had Trent Dilfer, Last year Denver had a completely banged up Peyton Manning). The Pats are extremely well coached and have Brady and that will be the difference. Take New England to win Superbowl 51. Lay $150 to win $100. I will take for $3,000 to win $2,000.
Wager: $3000 to win $2000
Results: Wow. What a game as Atlanta was up 28-3 in the 3rd quarter and then the Patriots slowly started their amazing comeback and won the game 34-28 in Overtime.